Empirical Examination of Technical Analysis for Equity Investment at Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)
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Author:
AHSAN IFTIKHAR QURESHI
Citable URI :
https://vspace.vu.edu.pk/detail.aspx?id=202
Publisher :
Virtual university
Date Issued:
6/20/2019 12:00:00 AM
Abstract
Primary objective for this research thesis is to empirically examine the evidence of technical analysis as a tool for profitable investment decisions at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The research also examines whether the application of technical analysis can enable an investor go achiever higher returns and outperform the returns achievable from the application of traditional and buy and hold (B&H) investment strategy. To achieve this purpose, the thesis comprehensively reviewed the theoretical and empirical studies regarding technical trading strategies and extends its application to PSX. This result benchmarks the returns, using technical trading rules, to passive buy & hold investment strategy. This research is based on secondary data i.e. daily stock price and volume data for 32 companies across 8 sectors listed at the exchange. The companies selected for review had been selected based on significant market capitalization. The selected companies represent, significant (>85%) sectorial representation and overall 66% of PSX-100 market capitalization for the period 2008-2016. A total of 15 technical trading rules (TTR), segregated into leading and lagging indicators, are used in this research in order to identify the trend direction; which are then compared to the traditional B&S trading signals. Two (2) sample paired t-test and comparison with B&H strategy have been utilized in order to find whether there are any significant variations in the returns yield by using TTR and B&H strategy.
The research concludes that there is no one right trading strategy either by using the TTR and B&S Strategy. Profitable returns are contingent upon applying respective investment strategy based on the conditions. TTR can produce satisfactory results, however, it should not be used as a stand-alone method. Research analysis findings show that Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) and Parabolic Stop & Reverse (SAR) exceed the returns from B&H strategy for all the 8 sectors for all the 9 years (with very little exception). In spite of the evidence confirming higher profitability of TTR strategies, significance using t-test cannot be established. In spite the extensive coverage, there are certain key limitations in this empirical research study which related testing procedure. Amongst some of these testing limitations are data snooping, challenges in the quantification and estimation of risk, using of search technologies and ex post selection of TTR. Any future research on the topic should aim to address these challenges in testing procedures to provide the basis for reasonable affirmation for the profitability of technical trading strategies. The research also concludes that at an overall level (in the context of PSX) B&H strategy generates higher returns to investors as compared to TTR.
URI :
https://vspace.vu.edu.pk/details.aspx?id=202
Citation:
Qureshi, A.I, (2018). Empirical Examination of Technical Analysis for Equity Investment at Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). Virtual University of Pakistan.(Lahore, Pakistan).
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Final Version
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